# Elisa Varini

2000 Degree in Mathematics, University of Parma, Italy

2005 PhD in Statistics, UniversitÃ Bocconi, Milan, Italy

### Research Activity

I am interested in stochastic modelling and Bayesian parametric statistics with special focus on point processes, state-space models, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, sequential Monte Carlo methods, statistical applications in Geophysics, seismic hazard assessment through data from historical catalogues, statistical methods for multi-hazard risk assessment.

### Projects

### CN HPC spoke 5

### RAISE spoke 3

### PANACEA

### WP2 Volcanoes - Task 13

### CA18109 AGITHAR

### PRIN 2015 Prot. 20157PRZC4

### MPS19

### Publications

2024, Journal article

We consider an epidemic-type aftershock model, ETAS(F), for a large class of distributions F determining the number of direct aftershocks. This class includes Poisson, Geometric, Negative Binomial dis...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggae001

2023, Journal article

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been the subject of numerous studies for its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many d...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3390/e25101441

2023, Journal article

This study aims at developing new macroseismic intensity attenuation models valid for Italy by exploiting the most updated macroseismic dataset and earthquakes catalogue, as well as the information ob...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-023-01822-8

2023, Journal article

The main purpose of this paper was to, for the first time, analyse the spatiotemporal features of the background seismicity of Northern Algeria and its vicinity, as identified by different declusterin...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3390/axioms12030237

2023, Journal article

In this paper, we tackle the problem of the intensity attenuation at Ischia, a critical parameter in a high seismic risk area such as this volcanic island. Starting from the new revised catalogue of l...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-023-01724-9

2022, Journal article

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in theoretical descriptions of seismicity in terms of statistical physics. Most aspects of these studies are encompassed by the concept of 'intermit...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggac118

2022, Journal article

The productivity of a magnitude m event can be characterized in term of triggered events of magnitude above m-d: it is the number of direct descendants v(d) and the number of all descendants V(d). The...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggac269

2022, Journal article

The area of the cells of Voronoi tessellations has been modelled through different probability distributions among which the most promising are the generalized gamma and tapered Pareto distributions. ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.928348

2021, Journal article

In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.4401/ag-8608

2021, Journal article

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have bee...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.628772

2021, Journal article

We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framewor...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.4401/ag-8579

2020, Journal article

The aim of this paper is to identify the ground motion models (GMMs), applicable in active shallow crustal regions (ASCRs) and subduction zones (SZs), to be used for the new release of the seismic haz...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-020-00850-y

2020, Journal article

An adequate characterization of the temporal features of background seismicity, namely after removal of temporally and spatially clustered events (e.g. aftershocks), is a key element in several studie...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01798-w

2020, Journal article

Abstract Earthquake clustering is a significant feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature in...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1029/2020JB019718

2019, Journal article

The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modeled according to stationary Poisson processes for the sake of simplicity. However, renewal and self-correcting point processes (with nondecr...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s00477-019-01663-5

2016, Journal article

According to the idea now widespread that macroseismic intensity should be expressed in probabilistic terms, a beta-binomial model has been proposed in the literature to estimate the probability of th...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-015-9781-7

2016, Journal article

This study presents a series of self-correctingmodels that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2016.05.017

2016, Journal article

A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake.The tool used i...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-015-9780-8

2015, Journal article

This communication aims to show some results on the distribution of the waiting time of a self-correcting point process that is known in seismology as the stress release model, and in actuarial scienc...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10651-014-0307-2

2012, Journal article

It is a widely shared opinion that not only secondary earthquakes (aftershocks) but also main earthquakes tend to occur in time-space clusters. The importance of this assumption requires the applicati...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.4081/rg.2012.e9

2008, Journal article

The author provides an approximated solution for the filtering of a state-space model, where the hidden state process is a continuous-time pure jump Markov process and the observations come from marke...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10260-007-0051-y

2007, Journal article

In this paper, we evaluate the seismic hazard of a region in southern Italy by analysing stress release models from the Bayesian viewpoint; the data are drawn from the most recent version of the param...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03314.x

2006, Journal article

We consider point processes defined on the space-time domain which model physical processes characterized qualitatively by the gradual increaseover time in some energy until a threshold is reached, af...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.005

2003, Journal article

N/A

CNR@People

**The strongest aftershock in seismic models of epidemic type***G. Molchan and E. Varini*We consider an epidemic-type aftershock model, ETAS(F), for a large class of distributions F determining the number of direct aftershocks. This class includes Poisson, Geometric, Negative Binomial dis...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggae001

2023, Journal article

**Connection between variations of the probability distribution of the recurrence time and phases of the seismic activity***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been the subject of numerous studies for its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many d...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3390/e25101441

2023, Journal article

**Macroseismic intensity attenuation models calibrated in Mw for Italy***A. A. Gomez-Capera, M. Santulin, M. D'Amico, V. D'Amico, M. Locati, C. Meletti and E. Varini*This study aims at developing new macroseismic intensity attenuation models valid for Italy by exploiting the most updated macroseismic dataset and earthquakes catalogue, as well as the information ob...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-023-01822-8

2023, Journal article

**Spatiotemporal analysis of the background seismicity identified by different declustering methods in northern Algeria and its vicinity***A. Benali, A. Jalilian, A. Peresan, E. Varini, and S. Idrissou*The main purpose of this paper was to, for the first time, analyse the spatiotemporal features of the background seismicity of Northern Algeria and its vicinity, as identified by different declusterin...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3390/axioms12030237

2023, Journal article

**The attenuation of macroseismic intensity in the volcanic island of Ischia (Gulf of Naples, Italy): comparison between deterministic and probabilistic models and application to seismic scenarios***R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, R. Rotondi and E. Varini*In this paper, we tackle the problem of the intensity attenuation at Ischia, a critical parameter in a high seismic risk area such as this volcanic island. Starting from the new revised catalogue of l...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-023-01724-9

2022, Journal article

**Analysis of temporal variations of seismicity through non-extensive statistical physics***R. Rotondi, G. Bressan, and E. Varini*In recent years, there has been increasing interest in theoretical descriptions of seismicity in terms of statistical physics. Most aspects of these studies are encompassed by the concept of 'intermit...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggac118

2022, Journal article

**Productivity within the epidemic-type seismicity model***G. Molchan, E. Varini, and A. Peresan*The productivity of a magnitude m event can be characterized in term of triggered events of magnitude above m-d: it is the number of direct descendants v(d) and the number of all descendants V(d). The...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggac269

2022, Journal article

**Temporal variations of the probability distribution of voronoi cells generated by earthquake epicenters***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*The area of the cells of Voronoi tessellations has been modelled through different probability distributions among which the most promising are the generalized gamma and tapered Pareto distributions. ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.928348

2021, Journal article

**Earthquake rupture forecasts for the MPS19 seismic hazard model of Italy***F. Visini, B. Pace, C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, A. Akinci, R. Azzaro, S. Barani, G. Barberi, G. Barreca, R. Basili, P. Bird, M. Bonini, P. Burrato, M. Busetti, M.M. Cosimo Carafa, O. Cocina, R. Console, G. Corti, N. D'Agostino, S. D'Amico, V. D'Amico, M. Dal Cin, G. Falcone, U. Fracassi, R. Gee, V. Kastelic, C.G. Lai, H. Langer, F.E. Maesano, A. Marchesini, L. Martelli, C. Monaco, M. Murru, L. Peruzza, M.E. Poli, S. Pondrelli, A. Rebez, R. Rotondi, A. Rovida, F. Sani, M. Santulin, D. Scafidi, J. Selva, D. Slejko, D. Spallarossa, A. Tamaro, G. Tarabusi, M. Taroni, M.M. Tiberti, G. Tusa, T. Tuvè, G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, E. Varini, A. Zanferrari, and E. Zuccolo*In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.4401/ag-8608

2021, Journal article

**Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis: A review of research gaps***J. Behrens, F. Løvholt, F. Jalayer, S. Lorito, M.A. Salgado-Gálvez, M. Sørensen, S. Abadie, I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, I. Aniel-Quiroga, A. Babeyko, M. Baiguera, R. Basili, S. Belliazzi, A. Grezio, K. Johnson, S. Murphy, R. Paris, I. Rafliana, R. De Risi, T. Rossetto, J. Selva, M. Taroni, M. Del Zoppo, A. Armigliato, V. Bures, P. Cech, C. Cecioni, P. Christodoulides, G. Davies, F. Dias, H.B. Bayraktar, M. González, M. Gritsevich, S. Guillas, C.B. Harbitz, U. Kânoglu, J. Macías, G.A. Papadopoulos, J. Polet, F. Romano, A. Salamon, A. Scala, M. Stepinac, D.R. Tappin, H.K. Thio, R. Tonini, I. Triantafyllou, T. Ulrich, E. Varini, M. Volpe and E. Vyhmeister*Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have bee...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.628772

2021, Journal article

**The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19)***C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, V. D'Amico, G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, F. Martinelli, B. Pace, A. Rovida, M. Taroni, F. Visini, and MPS19 Working Group*We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framewor...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.4401/ag-8579

2020, Journal article

**Ground motion models for the new seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19): selection for active shallow crustal regions and subduction zones***G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, V. D'Amico, F. Pacor, C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*The aim of this paper is to identify the ground motion models (GMMs), applicable in active shallow crustal regions (ASCRs) and subduction zones (SZs), to be used for the new release of the seismic haz...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-020-00850-y

2020, Journal article

**Modelling background seismicity components identified by nearest neighbour and stochastic declustering approaches: the case of Northeastern Italy***A. Benali, A. Peresan, E. Varini, and A. Talbi*An adequate characterization of the temporal features of background seismicity, namely after removal of temporally and spatially clustered events (e.g. aftershocks), is a key element in several studie...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01798-w

2020, Journal article

**Topological Comparison Between the Stochastic and the Nearest-Neighbor Earthquake Declustering Methods Through Network Analysis***E. Varini, A. Peresan, and J. Zhuang*Abstract Earthquake clustering is a significant feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature in...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1029/2020JB019718

2019, Journal article

**Failure models driven by a self-correcting point process in earthquake occurrence modeling***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modeled according to stationary Poisson processes for the sake of simplicity. However, renewal and self-correcting point processes (with nondecr...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s00477-019-01663-5

2016, Journal article

**Probabilistic modelling of macroseismic attenuation and forecast of damage scenarios***R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla*According to the idea now widespread that macroseismic intensity should be expressed in probabilistic terms, a beta-binomial model has been proposed in the literature to estimate the probability of th...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-015-9781-7

2016, Journal article

**Stress release model and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, and S. Barba*This study presents a series of self-correctingmodels that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2016.05.017

2016, Journal article

**The role of the urban system dysfunction in the assessment of seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy)***F. Meroni, G. Zonno, R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, C. S. Oliveira, M. A. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sá, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake.The tool used i...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10518-015-9780-8

2015, Journal article

**Probability distribution of the waiting time in the stress release model: the Gompertz distribution***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*This communication aims to show some results on the distribution of the waiting time of a self-correcting point process that is known in seismology as the stress release model, and in actuarial scienc...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10651-014-0307-2

2012, Journal article

**Global statistical tests for clustered earthquake pattern discovery in Italy***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*It is a widely shared opinion that not only secondary earthquakes (aftershocks) but also main earthquakes tend to occur in time-space clusters. The importance of this assumption requires the applicati...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.4081/rg.2012.e9

2008, Journal article

**A Monte Carlo method for filtering a marked doubly stochastic Poisson process***Varini E.*The author provides an approximated solution for the filtering of a state-space model, where the hidden state process is a continuous-time pure jump Markov process and the observations come from marke...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/s10260-007-0051-y

2007, Journal article

**Bayesian inference of stress release models applied to some Italian seismogenic zones***Rotondi R.; Varini E.*In this paper, we evaluate the seismic hazard of a region in southern Italy by analysing stress release models from the Bayesian viewpoint; the data are drawn from the most recent version of the param...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03314.x

2006, Journal article

**Bayesian analysis of marked stress release models for time-dependent hazard assessment in the western Gulf of Corinth***Rotondi R.; Varini, E.*We consider point processes defined on the space-time domain which model physical processes characterized qualitatively by the gradual increaseover time in some energy until a threshold is reached, af...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.005

2003, Journal article

**Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment***Rotondi R. , Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2023, Conference communications

In this study we statistically analyze some earthquake sequences of Central Italy to identify possible temporal variations in the probability distributions of seismic parameters, such as magnitude and...

CNR@People

2023, Conference proceedings

The q-exponential distribution, solution of a maximum entropy problem in the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, is useful for describing complex, non-linear dynamic systems that emerge in ma...

CNR@People

2023, Conference communications

In the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, the q-exponential probability distribution arises from the maximization of the Tsallis entropy under appropriate constraints (Tsallis, J. Stat. Phys...

CNR@People

2023, Meeting abstracts

The spatiotemporal distribution of the background seismicity identified by different declustering methods is analysed in the case of Northeastern Italy. In particular, the performance of two decluster...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.13120/2tf2-1j75

2023, Conference posters

We investigate earthquake clustering, a prominent feature of seismic catalogs, in terms of distribution of the number of triggered events as described by a branching process (Kagan and Knopoff, Phys. ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1897

2022, Meeting abstracts

In 1988, Tsallis introduced a non-additive entropy that has found applications in various fields such as physics, chemistry, medicine, informatics, linguistics, and economics. The concept also gained ...

CNR@People

2022, Conference proceedings

Several techniques for earthquake clusters identification have been developed in the literature. They usually rely on different underlying assumptions and lead to different classifications of earthqua...

CNR@People

2022, Conference posters

Earthquake clustering is a prominent feature of seismic catalogs. Several models have been proposed to describe the triggering mechanism of earthquakes; nonetheless, some theoretical aspects have not ...

CNR@People

2022, Conference proceedings

The objective of this paper is to analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of the background seismicity identified by Nearest Neighbour (NN) and Stochastic Declustering(SD) methods, in Northeastern Italy. ...

CNR@People

2022, Meeting abstracts

The concept has recently taken hold that Earth's crust behaves as a complex, non-linear dynamic system characterized by long-range correlations (Bowman et al., 2008, and references therein). In statis...

CNR@People | Link

2021, Conference proceedings

Probability distributions with power-law behaviours are observed in many complex systems, reflecting hierarchical or fractal structures. Statistical mechanics provides descriptions of these systems, a...

CNR@People

2021, Meeting abstracts

Declustering of seismic catalogs is required in wide range of earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard studies. However, different declustering methods may discriminate differently between background...

CNR@People

2021, Meeting abstracts

We investigate the statistical properties of declustered catalogs as obtained from the application of two different data-driven declustering algorithms, namely the nearest-neighbor method and the stoc...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11036

2021, Meeting abstracts

Declustering a seismic catalog is a relevant preliminary step in many applications, such as earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment. Declustering aims at partitioning an earthquake catalo...

CNR@People

2021, Meeting abstracts

Declustering a seismic catalog is a relevant preliminary step in many applications, such as earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment. Declustering aims partitioning an earthquake catalog i...

CNR@People

2020, Conference proceedings

Seismic hazard assessment is based on the research achievements developed in a lively multidisciplinary context involving seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists as well as computer scientists, m...

CNR@People

2020, Conference proceedings

Nowaday, macroseismic data are still essential for the seismic hazard assessment in several regions because they provide important knowledge on preinstrumental earthquakes, nedeed to compile historica...

CNR@People

2020, Conference proceedings

Physics-based models focus on the generation process of individual earthquakes butthe strong space-time interaction existing among the events of seismic sequences requires that the seismic activity be...

CNR@People

2019, Conference posters

Aim of this study is to forecast the spatial distribution of the damages caused by an earthquake in the area surrounding its epicentre. The macroseismic intensity Is at a site is a direct measure of t...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

Macroseismic intensity is a measure of the size of an earthquake in terms of the damages caused to the anthropic and natural environment; it is an ordinal quantity expressed through the twelve degrees...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

It is beyond doubt that information provided by historical seismology can provide a valuable aid to understanding the evolution of the seismic phenomenon; we cannot therefore renounce to analyze macro...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

Earthquake clustering is an essential property of seismicity and the space-time patterns of the identified seismicclusters may provide important information about the structural and dynamic features o...

CNR@People

2019, Meeting abstracts

The complexity of earthquake sequences is investigated by two declustering methods: the "nearest-neighbor" method (NN), which is based on nearest-neighbor distances between events in space-t...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

Earthquake clustering is a relevant feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature in order to ch...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

Many complex phenomena concerning extreme events causing natural disasters exhibit power-law behavior, reflecting a hierarchical or fractal structure. These phenomena seem to be susceptible to descrip...

CNR@People | Link

2019, Conference proceedings

In the framework of the project for the update of the national seismic hazard model (MPS19), a task was devotedto selecting and weighing the predictive equations for the ground motion parameters and t...

CNR@People | Link

2019, Conference proceedings

The seismic history of a region is characterized by its earthquake clusters, namely periods when the occurrence rate of earthquakes is higher than usual. Clustering in space and time is an essential k...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.6092/GRASPA19

2018, Conference proceedings

Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, some phenomenological features seem to be identifiable in the collective properties of seismicity....

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

Earthquakes are natural phenomena that affect multiple time-space scales and of which we only have indirect measurements strongly affected by uncertainty. These phenomena may be investigated on differ...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

The macroseismic intensity is an ordinal variable that describes the seismic damage effects of an earthquake. The collection of intensity values recorded at sites of an area hit by an earthquake is ca...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-55708-3_16

2018, Conference proceedings

Earthquake clusters are prominent in the spatio-temporal distribution of any seismic catalog; they commonly show different patterns and complexities that are deemed to be strictly inherent to the phys...

CNR@People

2018, Meeting abstracts

Earthquake clustering is a fundamental aspect of seismicity, with typical features in space, time, and energy domains that may provide key information about earthquake dynamics and about the physical ...

CNR@People | Link

2018, Conference proceedings

On August 21, 2017, a Md 4.0 earthquake struck the volcanic island of Ischia (Gulf of Naples, Italy), producing heavy damage and two casualties at Casamicciola (Azzaro et al., 2017), locality known fo...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

Earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time; rather, they tend to group into clusters that can be classified according to their different properties, presumably related to the specific geophys...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

Earthquake clustering is a prominent feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature with at least...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

A new Italian seismic hazard map is going to be developed in the framework of an agreement between the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the Department of Civil Prote...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust with...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

N/A

CNR@People | DOI: 10.21420/G23S33

2017, Conference communications

The process by which earthquakes are generated is still unknown. Its understanding is aimed at reducing and managing the seismic risk as well as at being a challenging research field. The fragmentary ...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

Two widely known features of the earthquake generation process are the following:- earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, sometimes, but not only, referred to as swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks act...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

Earthquake occurrence is usually modelled by point processes. The longterm recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by Poisson process or self-correcting point processes with nondecreasing ...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

We consider a metric that exploits the statistical properties of seismicity to quantify the correlation between earthquakes in a given catalogue. The method is based on nearest-neighbour distance betw...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

A number of studies aimed at seismic hazard assessment, as well as at the space-time analysis of earthquakes occurrence (e.g. Gentili et al., 2017), require preliminary declustering of the earthquake ...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

In questo lavoro vengono discusse le problematiche relative all'attenuazione dell'intensità macrosismica per l'area vulcanica di Ischia, che il recente evento del 21 agosto ha messo drammaticam...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

Two widely noted features of earthquake generation process are the following: a) earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, and b) fault ruptures that generate earthquakes decrease the amount of strain pr...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.36253/978-88-6453-521-0

2017, Conference proceedings

The MPS16 project, started in 2015, aims at updating the existing reference seismic hazard model for Italy, released in 2004-2006 (Stucchi et al., 2011). As known, ground-motion prediction equations (...

CNR@People

2016, Meeting abstracts

The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing...

CNR@People | Link

2016, Conference proceedings

The size of historical earthquakes is given by the macroseismic intensity, an ordinal variable expressed by different scales and closely related tothe effects produced by an earthquake on humans, buil...

CNR@People | Link

2016, Conference posters

The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing...

CNR@People

2016, Meeting abstracts

Many statistical tools have been developed for evaluating, understanding, and comparing models, from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. In particular, the problem of model selection can be ad...

CNR@People | Link

2016, Meeting abstracts

The MPS16 project, started in 2015, aims at updating the existing reference seismic hazard model for Italy, released in 2004-2006. As known, ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) play a basic role...

CNR@People

2015, Conference proceedings

The Disruption Index is used here for the assessment of urban disruption in the Mt. Etna area after a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09048-1_71

2015, Conference posters

Two widely noted features of earthquake generation are the following:- earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, sometimes, but not only, referred as "swarms", "foreshocks activity" a...

CNR@People | Link

2015, Meeting abstracts

The size of historical earthquakes is given by the macroseismic intensity, an ordinal variable expressed by different scales and closely related to the effects produced by an earthquake on humans, bui...

CNR@People

2014, Conference posters

N/A

CNR@People

2014, Conference proceedings

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2014, Conference proceedings

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2014, Conference communications

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2014, Conference proceedings

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2014, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People | Link

2014, Conference communications

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2014, Conference proceedings

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2013, Conference proceedings

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2013, Conference communications

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2013, Meeting abstracts

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2013, Conference proceedings

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2013, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2013, Conference posters

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CNR@People

2013, Meeting abstracts

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2013, Conference communications

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CNR@People | Link

2013, Conference communications

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CNR@People | Link

2013, Meeting abstracts

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CNR@People

2013, Conference proceedings

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2013, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2012, Meeting abstracts

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CNR@People | Link

2012, Conference communications

We analyse sequences of earthquakes of Mw >= 5.3 drawn from the Parametric Catalog of Italian Earthquakes CPTI04 and associated with the composite seismogenic sources of the Database of Individual S...

CNR@People

2012, Conference communications

This study is being carried out in the framework of the EU research project "Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" (Grant Agreement n. 230301/2011...

CNR@People | Link

2012, Meeting abstracts

N/A

CNR@People | Link

2012, Conference proceedings

In this work our objectives are, first, to describe a probabilistic model aimed at forecasting macroseismic fieldsand, second, to present the results and findings obtained by applying the model to two...

CNR@People

2012, Conference proceedings

N/A

CNR@People

2012, Conference proceedings

This contribution presents the general framework of the European project UPStrat-MAFA "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" and its ongoing activ...

CNR@People

2011, Conference proceedings

This study is aimed at characterising the attenuation of earthquakes in Italy by exploiting the information provided by the macroseismic fields of the DBMI04 database. The analysis was carried out for...

CNR@People

2011, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2011, Meeting abstracts

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CNR@People

2010, Meeting abstracts

In a previous project the long-term occurrence probability within various time intervals for the seismogenic areas of DISS3.0.2 was estimated on the basis of a nonparametric estimation of the density ...

CNR@People

2010, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2010, Meeting abstracts

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CNR@People

2009, Conference communications

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CNR@People

2009, Conference communications

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CNR@People

2009, Conference proceedings

A doubly stochastic Poisson process is proposed in order to study seismic sequences. It is a state-space model where the state process jumps among three possible states, each of them characterised by ...

CNR@People

2009, Conference proceedings

In this article the seismic hazard assessment is the final goal of a multi-step procedure in which the reliability of the final result depends strongly on the answers given to the intermediate issues....

CNR@People

2009, Conference proceedings

The historical seismic data are suitably modelled by the self-correcting point processes whose conditional intensity functions give the instantaneous occurrence probability of at least one event. Thes...

CNR@People

2009, Meeting abstracts

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CNR@People

2008, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2008, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2008, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2008, Conference communications

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CNR@People

2007, Conference communications

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CNR@People

2007, Conference proceedings

In questo lavoro consideriamo un processo di Poisson doppiamente stocastico, che può essere interpretato come un modello stato-spazio non lineare a tempo continuo. Abbiamo sviluppato un algorit...

CNR@People

2007, Conference posters

The geophysical and geological features of a seismic region determine the succession of the earthquake occurrences; we assume that their temporal variations produce state changes in the physical syste...

CNR@People

2007, Conference proceedings

We consider continuous-time models where the observed process depends on an unobserved jump Markov Process. We develop a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm which makes it possible to filter and smooth t...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1051/proc:071903

2006, Meeting abstracts

In questo lavoro presentiamo i risultati relativi ad un'analisi bayesiana di modelli di rilascio di sforzo applicati alla zona dell'Italia meridionale corrispondente al Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia.

CNR@People

2006, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2006, Conference communications

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CNR@People

2005, Conference proceedings

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CNR@People

2004, Conference proceedings

Discutiamo in questo articolo l'applicazione di alcuni modelli di rilascio disforzo - stress release - alla sequenza di forti terremoti registrati in una regione sismogenetica dell'Italia meridionale....

CNR@People

**A Bayesian approach to uncover temporal variations in seismicity***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*In this study we statistically analyze some earthquake sequences of Central Italy to identify possible temporal variations in the probability distributions of seismic parameters, such as magnitude and...

CNR@People

2023, Conference proceedings

**A Bayesian study of temporal changes in seismicity***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*The q-exponential distribution, solution of a maximum entropy problem in the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, is useful for describing complex, non-linear dynamic systems that emerge in ma...

CNR@People

2023, Conference communications

**Bayesian analysis of temporal changes in the probability distribution of seismic parameters and links with the seismic cycle***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*In the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, the q-exponential probability distribution arises from the maximization of the Tsallis entropy under appropriate constraints (Tsallis, J. Stat. Phys...

CNR@People

2023, Meeting abstracts

**Statistical analysis of declustered catalogues in Northeastern Italy***E. Varini, A. Peresan, and A. Benali*The spatiotemporal distribution of the background seismicity identified by different declustering methods is analysed in the case of Northeastern Italy. In particular, the performance of two decluster...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.13120/2tf2-1j75

2023, Conference posters

**Theoretical analysis of the productivity of seismic events***E. Varini, G. Molchan, and A. Peresan*We investigate earthquake clustering, a prominent feature of seismic catalogs, in terms of distribution of the number of triggered events as described by a branching process (Kagan and Knopoff, Phys. ...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1897

2022, Meeting abstracts

**Bayesian analysis of temporal variations of seismicity based on non-extensive statistical mechanics***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*In 1988, Tsallis introduced a non-additive entropy that has found applications in various fields such as physics, chemistry, medicine, informatics, linguistics, and economics. The concept also gained ...

CNR@People

2022, Conference proceedings

**Earthquake declustering in Central Italy***E.Varini and A. Peresan*Several techniques for earthquake clusters identification have been developed in the literature. They usually rely on different underlying assumptions and lead to different classifications of earthqua...

CNR@People

2022, Conference posters

**Earthquake productivity within general ETAS models***E. Varini, G. Molchan, and A. Peresan*Earthquake clustering is a prominent feature of seismic catalogs. Several models have been proposed to describe the triggering mechanism of earthquakes; nonetheless, some theoretical aspects have not ...

CNR@People

2022, Conference proceedings

**Spatiotemporal analysis of catalogues declustered by different methods in Northeastern Italy region***A. Benali, A. Peresan, and E. Varini*The objective of this paper is to analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of the background seismicity identified by Nearest Neighbour (NN) and Stochastic Declustering(SD) methods, in Northeastern Italy. ...

CNR@People

2022, Meeting abstracts

**Temporal variations of seismicity from the application of Tsallis entropy***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, and G. Bressan*The concept has recently taken hold that Earth's crust behaves as a complex, non-linear dynamic system characterized by long-range correlations (Bowman et al., 2008, and references therein). In statis...

CNR@People | Link

2021, Conference proceedings

**A measure of criticality for a complex system in the context of non-extensive statistical mechanics***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Probability distributions with power-law behaviours are observed in many complex systems, reflecting hierarchical or fractal structures. Statistical mechanics provides descriptions of these systems, a...

CNR@People

2021, Meeting abstracts

**Declustering algorithms, background seismicity modeling and earthquake clusters analysis***E. Varini, A. Peresan, A. Benali*Declustering of seismic catalogs is required in wide range of earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard studies. However, different declustering methods may discriminate differently between background...

CNR@People

2021, Meeting abstracts

**Markov modulated Poisson processes for stochastic modelling of background seismicity***E. Varini, A. Peresan and A. Benali*We investigate the statistical properties of declustered catalogs as obtained from the application of two different data-driven declustering algorithms, namely the nearest-neighbor method and the stoc...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11036

2021, Meeting abstracts

**Markov modulated Poisson processes for stochastic modelling of background seismicity***E. Varini, A. Peresan and A. Benali*Declustering a seismic catalog is a relevant preliminary step in many applications, such as earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment. Declustering aims at partitioning an earthquake catalo...

CNR@People

2021, Meeting abstracts

**MMPP Models of Background Seismicity: A Comparative Analysis for Different Declustering Algorithms***E. Varini, A. Peresan. A. Benali*Declustering a seismic catalog is a relevant preliminary step in many applications, such as earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment. Declustering aims partitioning an earthquake catalog i...

CNR@People

2020, Conference proceedings

**Bayesian stochastic modelling of the temporal evolutionof seismicity***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*Seismic hazard assessment is based on the research achievements developed in a lively multidisciplinary context involving seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists as well as computer scientists, m...

CNR@People

2020, Conference proceedings

**Probabilistic damage scenarios from uncertain macroseismic data***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*Nowaday, macroseismic data are still essential for the seismic hazard assessment in several regions because they provide important knowledge on preinstrumental earthquakes, nedeed to compile historica...

CNR@People

2020, Conference proceedings

**Variations in the temporal evolution of seismicity pointed out by non-extensive statistical physics approach***R. Rotondi, E. Varini*Physics-based models focus on the generation process of individual earthquakes butthe strong space-time interaction existing among the events of seismic sequences requires that the seismic activity be...

CNR@People

2019, Conference posters

**Anisotropic attenuation of the macroseismic intensity***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Aim of this study is to forecast the spatial distribution of the damages caused by an earthquake in the area surrounding its epicentre. The macroseismic intensity Is at a site is a direct measure of t...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

**Anisotropic attenuation of the macroseismic intensity***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Macroseismic intensity is a measure of the size of an earthquake in terms of the damages caused to the anthropic and natural environment; it is an ordinal quantity expressed through the twelve degrees...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

**Another step in the path from macroseismic fields to probabilistic modeling of attenuation***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*It is beyond doubt that information provided by historical seismology can provide a valuable aid to understanding the evolution of the seismic phenomenon; we cannot therefore renounce to analyze macro...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

**Capturing the complexity of earthquake sequences by different methods***A. Peresan, E. Varini and J. Zhuang*Earthquake clustering is an essential property of seismicity and the space-time patterns of the identified seismicclusters may provide important information about the structural and dynamic features o...

CNR@People

2019, Meeting abstracts

**Declustering algorithms and network theory for the topological inspection of earthquake sequences***E. Varini, A. Peresan A, and J. Zhuang*The complexity of earthquake sequences is investigated by two declustering methods: the "nearest-neighbor" method (NN), which is based on nearest-neighbor distances between events in space-t...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

**Earthquake clustering and centrality measures***E. Varini, A. Peresan, and J. Zhuang*Earthquake clustering is a relevant feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature in order to ch...

CNR@People

2019, Conference proceedings

**On the examination of a criticality measure for a complex system in a forecasting perspective***Rotondi R. and Varini E.*Many complex phenomena concerning extreme events causing natural disasters exhibit power-law behavior, reflecting a hierarchical or fractal structure. These phenomena seem to be susceptible to descrip...

CNR@People | Link

2019, Conference proceedings

**Selection and weighing of ground motion prediction equations for the new seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19)***V. D'Amico, L. Luzi, G. Lanzano, F. Pacor, R. Puglia, W. Marzocchi, C. Meletti, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*In the framework of the project for the update of the national seismic hazard model (MPS19), a task was devotedto selecting and weighing the predictive equations for the ground motion parameters and t...

CNR@People | Link

2019, Conference proceedings

**Spatio-temporal earthquake clustering: insights and outlooks from Network Analysis***E. Varini, A. Peresan, and J. Zhuang*The seismic history of a region is characterized by its earthquake clusters, namely periods when the occurrence rate of earthquakes is higher than usual. Clustering in space and time is an essential k...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.6092/GRASPA19

2018, Conference proceedings

**A measure of the criticality of a seismogenic system from the viewpoint of statistical physics***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, some phenomenological features seem to be identifiable in the collective properties of seismicity....

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

**A new proposal for stochastic modeling of earthquake occurrence through a compound model***R. Rotondi, E. Varini*Earthquakes are natural phenomena that affect multiple time-space scales and of which we only have indirect measurements strongly affected by uncertainty. These phenomena may be investigated on differ...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

**Clustering macroseismic fields by statistical data depth functions***C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*The macroseismic intensity is an ordinal variable that describes the seismic damage effects of an earthquake. The collection of intensity values recorded at sites of an area hit by an earthquake is ca...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-55708-3_16

2018, Conference proceedings

**Comparison of two clustering algorithms for the characterization of earthquake clusters***E. Varini, A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, S. Gentili*Earthquake clusters are prominent in the spatio-temporal distribution of any seismic catalog; they commonly show different patterns and complexities that are deemed to be strictly inherent to the phys...

CNR@People

2018, Meeting abstracts

**Investigating the spatial features of earthquake clusters: insights from different methods***A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and S. Gentili*Earthquake clustering is a fundamental aspect of seismicity, with typical features in space, time, and energy domains that may provide key information about earthquake dynamics and about the physical ...

CNR@People | Link

2018, Conference proceedings

**Seismic scenarios and hazard assessment in the island of Ischia (Neapolitan volcanic district, Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic intensity data***R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini*On August 21, 2017, a Md 4.0 earthquake struck the volcanic island of Ischia (Gulf of Naples, Italy), producing heavy damage and two casualties at Casamicciola (Azzaro et al., 2017), locality known fo...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

**Space-time earthquake clustering: nearest-neighbor and stochastic declustering methods in comparison***E. Varini, A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, and S. Gentili*Earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time; rather, they tend to group into clusters that can be classified according to their different properties, presumably related to the specific geophys...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

**Spatial features of earthquake clusters investigated by different approaches***A. Peresan, E. Varini, S. Gentili, R. Rotondi*Earthquake clustering is a prominent feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature with at least...

CNR@People

2018, Conference proceedings

**The attenuation of macroseismic intensity in Italy: A probabilistic approach to seismic scenarios and hazard assessment***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*A new Italian seismic hazard map is going to be developed in the framework of an agreement between the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the Department of Civil Prote...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

**A comparative analysis of methods for identification and characterization of earthquake clusters***R. Rotondi, A. Peresan, S. Gentili, and E. Varini*Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust with...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

**A failure process driven by a self-correcting model***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*N/A

CNR@People | DOI: 10.21420/G23S33

2017, Conference communications

**Bayesian inference and predictive accuracy of failure models driven by a self-correcting point process for long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*The process by which earthquakes are generated is still unknown. Its understanding is aimed at reducing and managing the seismic risk as well as at being a challenging research field. The fragmentary ...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

**Combining failure and self-correcting processes in seismic risk analysis***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Two widely known features of the earthquake generation process are the following:- earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, sometimes, but not only, referred to as swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks act...

CNR@People

2017, Meeting abstracts

**Failure processes driven by a selfcorrecting model. Application to earthquake sequences.***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*Earthquake occurrence is usually modelled by point processes. The longterm recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by Poisson process or self-correcting point processes with nondecreasing ...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

**Identification of earthquake clusters through a new space-time-magnitude metric***R. Rotondi, A. Peresan, S. Gentili, and E. Varini*We consider a metric that exploits the statistical properties of seismicity to quantify the correlation between earthquakes in a given catalogue. The method is based on nearest-neighbour distance betw...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

**Investigating features of earthquake clustering: a comparative analysis for selected sequences In Italy***A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and S. Gentili*A number of studies aimed at seismic hazard assessment, as well as at the space-time analysis of earthquakes occurrence (e.g. Gentili et al., 2017), require preliminary declustering of the earthquake ...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

**L'attenuazione dell'intensità macrosismica nell'isola vulcanica di Ischia: confronto tra modelli deterministici e probabilistici e applicazione per la generazione di scenari di danno***R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*In questo lavoro vengono discusse le problematiche relative all'attenuazione dell'intensità macrosismica per l'area vulcanica di Ischia, che il recente evento del 21 agosto ha messo drammaticam...

CNR@People

2017, Conference proceedings

**On a failure process driven by a self-correcting model in seismic hazard assessment***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Two widely noted features of earthquake generation process are the following: a) earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, and b) fault ruptures that generate earthquakes decrease the amount of strain pr...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.36253/978-88-6453-521-0

2017, Conference proceedings

**Selection and ranking of the ground motion prediction equations for the new Italian hazard map (MPS16)***G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and W. Marzocchi*The MPS16 project, started in 2015, aims at updating the existing reference seismic hazard model for Italy, released in 2004-2006 (Stucchi et al., 2011). As known, ground-motion prediction equations (...

CNR@People

2016, Meeting abstracts

**A new statistical time-dependent model of earthquake occurrence: failure processes driven by a self-correcting model***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing...

CNR@People | Link

2016, Conference proceedings

**Clustering macroseismic fields by statistical data depth functions***C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*The size of historical earthquakes is given by the macroseismic intensity, an ordinal variable expressed by different scales and closely related tothe effects produced by an earthquake on humans, buil...

CNR@People | Link

2016, Conference posters

**On failure processes driven by a self-correcting model. Application to sequences of seismic events***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing...

CNR@People

2016, Meeting abstracts

**On the predictive information criteria for model determination in seismic hazard analysis***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*Many statistical tools have been developed for evaluating, understanding, and comparing models, from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. In particular, the problem of model selection can be ad...

CNR@People | Link

2016, Meeting abstracts

**Ranking ground-motion prediction models in different seismotectonic contexts: the experience for the new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS16)***G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, F. Pacor, R. Puglia, V. D'Amico, C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*The MPS16 project, started in 2015, aims at updating the existing reference seismic hazard model for Italy, released in 2004-2006. As known, ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) play a basic role...

CNR@People

2015, Conference proceedings

**Applying the disruption index procedure to evaluate the urban seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy)***G. Zonno, R. Azzaro, F. Meroni, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, M. A. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sá, C. S. Oliveira, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*The Disruption Index is used here for the assessment of urban disruption in the Mt. Etna area after a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09048-1_71

2015, Conference posters

**On the convolution of stochastic processes for modelling strong earthquake occurrences: a multi-rupture model driven by a self-correcting model***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*Two widely noted features of earthquake generation are the following:- earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, sometimes, but not only, referred as "swarms", "foreshocks activity" a...

CNR@People | Link

2015, Meeting abstracts

**Statistical data depth for clustering macroseismic fields***C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*The size of historical earthquakes is given by the macroseismic intensity, an ordinal variable expressed by different scales and closely related to the effects produced by an earthquake on humans, bui...

CNR@People

2014, Conference posters

**A state-space model for the analysis of seismic swarms.***E. Varini and Y. Ogata*N/A

CNR@People

2014, Conference proceedings

**Macroseismic attenuation from probabilistic perspective in European countries***R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla*N/A

CNR@People

2014, Conference proceedings

**On assessing importance of components in dysfunction urban systems given an earthquake: the case of Mt Etna region***G. Zonno, F. Meroni, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, R. Azzaro, C.S. Oliveira, M.A. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sà, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2014, Conference communications

**Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis from local macroseismic history: a new implementation of the SASHA code***D. Albarello, V. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and G. Zonno*N/A

CNR@People

2014, Conference proceedings

**Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from local seismic history - A tool for risk assessment in urban areas***D. Albarello, V. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and G. Zonno*N/A

CNR@People

2014, Conference proceedings

**Statistical modelling for identification of earthquake clusters***E. Varini and Y. Ogata*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2014, Conference communications

**The Gompertz waiting time distributions of the stress release model in the bayesian framework.***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2014, Conference proceedings

**UPSTRAT-MAFA European project - Developments and achievements***G. Zonno, R. Rotondi, C.S. Oliveira, A. Carvalho, M. Garcia-Fernandez, R. Sigbjörnsson, and Working Group of UPStrat-MAFA project*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference proceedings

**A beta-binomial model for macroseismic attenuation. Case studies in European countries***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference communications

**Application of simulated data.***G. Zonno, E. Varini, and A. Carvalho*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Meeting abstracts

**Generalized probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in terms of macroseismic intensity as a tool for risk assessment in urban areas.***D. Albarello, V. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and Zonno G.*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference proceedings

**Modelling the occurrence of strong earthquakes through the superposition of two stochastic processes: a multi-rupture model driven by a self-correcting model.***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference proceedings

**On the macroseismic attenuation from the probabilistic perspective.***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference posters

**On the macroseismic attenuation from the probabilistic perspective. Applications in European countries.***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Meeting abstracts

**On the stress release models with new tips from geophysics: Bayesian estimation, forecasting and validation.***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference communications

**Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic data: modelling.***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2013, Conference communications

**Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic data: results.***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2013, Meeting abstracts

**Self-correcting models driven by seismic strain, moment or energy. Applications to the Italian seismicity.***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference proceedings

**The disruption index evaluation in the urban Mt. Etna area (Italy).***F. Meroni, R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, G. Zonno, A.F. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sà, C.S. Oliveira, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2013, Conference proceedings

**Validation of macroseismic scenarios from a beta-binomial model.***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2012, Meeting abstracts

**A self-correcting stochastic model of earthquake occurrence enhanced by geologic fault data***R. Rotondi, E. Varini, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2012, Conference communications

**A self-correcting stochastic model of earthquake occurrence enhanced by geological fault data***R. Rotondi, E. Varini, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò*We analyse sequences of earthquakes of Mw >= 5.3 drawn from the Parametric Catalog of Italian Earthquakes CPTI04 and associated with the composite seismogenic sources of the Database of Individual S...

CNR@People

2012, Conference communications

**Estimation of macroseismic scenarios in European countries***R. Rotondi, R. Sigbjörnsson, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla*This study is being carried out in the framework of the EU research project "Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" (Grant Agreement n. 230301/2011...

CNR@People | Link

2012, Meeting abstracts

**Estimation of macroseismic scenarios in European countries.***R. Rotondi, R. Sigbjornsson, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2012, Conference proceedings

**Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic fields: Iceland case study***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, E. Varini, and R. Sigbjörnsson*In this work our objectives are, first, to describe a probabilistic model aimed at forecasting macroseismic fieldsand, second, to present the results and findings obtained by applying the model to two...

CNR@People

2012, Conference proceedings

**Self-correcting models with different measures of the earthquake strength***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò*N/A

CNR@People

2012, Conference proceedings

**Urban disaster-prevention strategies using macroseismic fields and fault sources***G. Zonno, R. Azzaro, F. Bianco, P. Cusano, S. D'Amico, V. D'Amico, S. Falsaperla, D. Galluzzo, H. Langer, F. Meroni, G. Musacchio, R. Nave, F. Sansivero, L. Scarfi, R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, E. Varini, C.S. Oliveira, M.A. Ferreira, M. Lopes, F. Mota de Sá, J.C. Nunes, A. Carvalho, M.L. Sousa, S. Raposo, M. Garcia-Fernandez, A. Beltran, J. Jenni, M.J. Jimenez, R. Sigbjörnsson, A.E. Bernhardsdottir, S. Olafsson, R. Rupakhety, S.U. Sigurdsson, S. Thorvaldsdottir, and D. Albarello*This contribution presents the general framework of the European project UPStrat-MAFA "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" and its ongoing activ...

CNR@People

2011, Conference proceedings

**Clustering and classification in hazard evaluation***R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and G. Zonno*This study is aimed at characterising the attenuation of earthquakes in Italy by exploiting the information provided by the macroseismic fields of the DBMI04 database. The analysis was carried out for...

CNR@People

2011, Conference proceedings

**Is space-time interaction real or apparent in seismic activity?***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2011, Meeting abstracts

**Statistical tests for the retrospective detection of space-time clusters of seismic events.***E. Varini and R. Rotondi*N/A

CNR@People

2010, Meeting abstracts

**Occurrence Probability in Seismogenic Areas of DISS3.0.2 by Renewal Process: Importance of the Consistency between Model Assumptions and Input Data***R. Rotondi, S. Barba, R. Basili, E. Varini, and B. Betrò*In a previous project the long-term occurrence probability within various time intervals for the seismogenic areas of DISS3.0.2 was estimated on the basis of a nonparametric estimation of the density ...

CNR@People

2010, Conference proceedings

**Seismic hazard assessment by slip, strain and moment-based self-correcting models***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, B. Betrò, S. Barba, and R. Basili*N/A

CNR@People

2010, Meeting abstracts

**Statistical significance of earthquake space-time clustering: Italy case***R. Rotondi and E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2009, Conference communications

**Bayesian analysis of a state-space model with a nonstationary state process***Varini E., Rotondi R.*N/A

CNR@People

2009, Conference communications

**Bayesian estimation of the conditional intensity function in self-correcting point processes applied to the seismic activity of Italian tectonic regions***Rotondi R., Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2009, Conference proceedings

**Bayesian inference of a doubly stochastic Poisson process with a non-stationary state process***Rotondi R., Varini E.*A doubly stochastic Poisson process is proposed in order to study seismic sequences. It is a state-space model where the state process jumps among three possible states, each of them characterised by ...

CNR@People

2009, Conference proceedings

**Multi-step analysis of seismic hazard through point processes***Varini E., Rotondi R.*In this article the seismic hazard assessment is the final goal of a multi-step procedure in which the reliability of the final result depends strongly on the answers given to the intermediate issues....

CNR@People

2009, Conference proceedings

**Self-correcting models for seismic hazard assessment in comparison***Varini E., Rotondi R., Betrò B., Barba S., Basili R.*The historical seismic data are suitably modelled by the self-correcting point processes whose conditional intensity functions give the instantaneous occurrence probability of at least one event. Thes...

CNR@People

2009, Meeting abstracts

**Time-dependent seismic hazard assessment through a self-correcting point process for the slip***Varini E., Rotondi R.*N/A

CNR@People

2008, Conference proceedings

**A HMM involving stress release and Etas models***Varini E., Rotondi R.*N/A

CNR@People

2008, Conference proceedings

**Examples of How the Stochastic Modelling Helps in Understanding the Earthquake Dynamics***Rotondi R., Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2008, Conference proceedings

**Filtering and inference of a doubly stochastic Poisson process***Varini E., Chopin N., Rotondi R.*N/A

CNR@People

2008, Conference communications

**Stochastic analysis of natural hazards***B. Betrò (oratore), A. Bodini , C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi E. Varini*N/A

CNR@People

2007, Conference communications

**Likelihood inference for continuous-time hidden Markov models.***Chopin Nicolas, Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2007, Conference proceedings

**Likelihood inference for continuous-time state-space models***Chopin N., Varini E.*In questo lavoro consideriamo un processo di Poisson doppiamente stocastico, che può essere interpretato come un modello stato-spazio non lineare a tempo continuo. Abbiamo sviluppato un algorit...

CNR@People

2007, Conference posters

**Nonstationary Markov processes in phase transition modelling***Rotondi R., Varini E.*The geophysical and geological features of a seismic region determine the succession of the earthquake occurrences; we assume that their temporal variations produce state changes in the physical syste...

CNR@People

2007, Conference proceedings

**Particle filtering for continuous-time hidden Markov models***Chopin N., Varini E.*We consider continuous-time models where the observed process depends on an unobserved jump Markov Process. We develop a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm which makes it possible to filter and smooth t...

CNR@People | DOI: 10.1051/proc:071903

2006, Meeting abstracts

**Modelli di rilascio di sforzo e aree sismogenetiche***Rotondi R. e Varini E.*In questo lavoro presentiamo i risultati relativi ad un'analisi bayesiana di modelli di rilascio di sforzo applicati alla zona dell'Italia meridionale corrispondente al Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia.

CNR@People

2006, Conference proceedings

**Particle filtering of a state-space model for seismic sequences***Chopin N., Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2006, Conference communications

**Reconciling short- and long-term seismic modelling***Rotondi R. e Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2005, Conference proceedings

**Stochastic simulation of point process models for forecasting seismic events***Rotondi R., Varini E.*N/A

CNR@People

2004, Conference proceedings

**Valutazione della pericolosità sismica nella regione Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia attraverso modelli di rilascio di sforzo***Rotondi R., Varini E.*Discutiamo in questo articolo l'applicazione di alcuni modelli di rilascio disforzo - stress release - alla sequenza di forti terremoti registrati in una regione sismogenetica dell'Italia meridionale....

CNR@People

2014, Research report

N/A

CNR@People | Link

2013, Technical report

This study presents a series of self-correcting models that were obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed...

CNR@People

2011, Research report

N/A

CNR@People

**Task B - Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic data to forecast damage scenarios***R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, E. Varini, and G. Zonno*N/A

CNR@People | Link

2013, Technical report

**Strain-, moment- and energy-based self-correcting models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Italy.***E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò*This study presents a series of self-correcting models that were obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed...

CNR@People

2011, Research report

**Impatto dei cambiamenti climatici sulle produzioni agricole: strategie di adattamento ai processi di desertificazione nelle aree mediterranee (CYCAS-MED). Report finale - Parte A.***A. Bodini, C. Cesaraccio, M. Dubrovsky, P. Duce, E. Varini, and P. Zara*N/A

CNR@People

2023, Multimedia product

Presentazione nell'ambito del convegno La Statistica al CNR al Servizio del Paese - Edizione del Centenario.Abstract della presentazione:La sismologia moderna nasce a metà del XIX secolo nella ...

CNR@People | Link

2014, Multimedia product

This CD-Rom is a dissemination product of the EU project "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" (UPStrat-MAFA); it summarizes the main results obt...

CNR@People

**Statistica bayesiana per lo studio di sequenze di terremoti***E. Varini*Presentazione nell'ambito del convegno La Statistica al CNR al Servizio del Paese - Edizione del Centenario.Abstract della presentazione:La sismologia moderna nasce a metà del XIX secolo nella ...

CNR@People | Link

2014, Multimedia product

**Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources***R. Nave, F. Sansivero, G. Zonno (DVD contents revision and structuring), and Partners of UPStrat-MAFA Project*This CD-Rom is a dissemination product of the EU project "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" (UPStrat-MAFA); it summarizes the main results obt...

CNR@People